II. Country Assessments and Performance Measures - Kyrgyz Republic


U.S. Government Assistance to and Cooperative Activities with Eurasia
Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs
January 2006
Report

Country Overview

Map of Kyrgyz RepublicCountry Facts

  • Area: 76,641 sq mi (198,500 sq km), slightly smaller than South Dakota
  • Population: 5,146,281 (July 2005 est.)
  • Population Growth Rate: 1.29 percent (2005 est.)
  • Life Expectancy: Male 64.16 yrs., Female 72.38 yrs. (2005 est.)
  • Infant Mortality: 35.64 deaths/1,000 live births (2005 est.)
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $8.495 billion (purchasing power parity, 2004 est.)
  • GDP Per Capita Income: $1,700 (purchasing power parity, 2004 est.)
  • Real GDP Growth: 6 percent (2004 est.)

Overview of U.S. Government Assistance

In FY 2005, the USG allocated an estimated $72.65 million in assistance to the Kyrgyz Republic, including:

  • $14.95 million in democratic reform programs;
  • $12.25 million in economic reform programs;
  • $7.32 million in social reform programs;
  • $15.78 million in security, regional stability, and law enforcement programs;
  • $3.42 million in humanitarian programs;
  • $0.50 million in cross-sector and other programs; and
  • Privately donated and USG excess humanitarian commodities valued at $18.43 million.

In FY 2005, a total of 198 Kyrgyz traveled to the United States on USG-funded exchange programs.

FY 2005 Assistance Overview


U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS

The U.S. Government's (USG) strategic goals in the Kyrgyz Republic include promoting counter terrorism, regional stability, the development of a democratic, market-based economy, and combating smuggling of narcotics and trafficking in persons.

The Kyrgyz Republic has strongly supported the Global War on Terrorism. Over 1,000 Coalition troops are deployed to the Manas Airbase, which is located next to the Manas International Airport just outside of Bishkek. Hundreds of military transport aircraft pass through the base every month to support Operation Enduring Freedom. Most are transport and refueling flights going to and from Afghanistan. The Kyrgyz Republic is also a significant transit country for narcotics smuggled out of Afghanistan to markets in Russia and Europe. The extreme poverty of the population (with a monthly average salary of only U.S. $60.2, about 35 percent over minimal consumption requirements) contributes to the potential for regional instability, as well as increased trafficking of narcotics and persons.

Finally, following the "Tulip Revolution" of March 2005, the Kyrgyz Republic is even more important to U.S. policy as an example of potential gains to be made through peaceful, democratic change in the region.

KEY ISSUES

Flawed parliamentary elections in February and March were the catalyst for an uprising on March 24, 2005 that ousted the Akayev government. A loose coalition of opposition figures quickly formed an interim government and recognized the newly elected parliament. Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the acting interim president, was elected president in July 2005 in elections deemed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe as marking significant progress towards meeting international standards. The election marked the first constitutional transfer of power in Central Asia. The Bakiyev government launched initial steps to reform the constitution and state media and to attack widespread corruption, but changes have not been as quickly as many had hoped. Many observers believe that corruption is as entrenched as it was during the Akaev government, and high level nepotism and cronyism clearly remain serious impediments to the public trust necessary for a true democracy to develop.

Although the March 2005 "revolution" brought hope for a more responsive government, it also significantly destabilized state administration and staggered confidence in business circles. While a financial crisis was avoided, the political instability and uncertainty in economic policy seriously affected production, increased unemployment, and stalled GDP growth. 2005 saw an overall deterioration in the business environment.

The leadership changes brought about by the "revolution" have also disrupted security assistance programs. Though the USG continues to engage the Kyrgyz government in programs to improve WMD detection and counter-terrorism capabilities, as well as fighting corruption, it remains to be seen how interested the new administration is in actually implementing important but difficult reforms within the security services.

Not long after the March events, a flow of refugees from Uzbekistan fleeing from a government crackdown in Andijon placed the Kyrgyz Government between Uzbek demands for the forcible return of the citizens and demands of the U.S. and other international donors that the refugees be treated in accordance with international law and not be repatriated against their will. Most refugees have been moved to Eastern Europe, but as of January 2006, the Kyrgyz are considering returning the four remaining. This has the potential to negatively affect many donor programs.

Relations with Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic's dependence on cheap Uzbek gas dominate Kyrgyz foreign policy. As gas liquification and other technologies allow the Uzbeks to sell their gas further abroad, the Kyrgyz Republic will face steeply increasing prices. The Kyrgyz, therefore, must attempt to modernize both management and infrastructure in their critical hydro-energy industry and obtain world prices for their exports of hydro-electric energy.

On the positive side, the Kyrgyz Government has been granted eligibility to apply for Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) threshold funding. If granted, this may allow important funding for a number of reforms related to ruling justly, such as police reform, judicial administration, and energy reforms. An additional positive development is the Kyrgyz Government's willingness to attempt to qualify for the program of debt forgiveness for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). This and the MCA are strong inducements for serious and lasting reform. Finally, 2006 should see the adoption of a common strategy statement by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other bilateral donors in connection with the new Kyrgyz National Poverty Reduction Strategy. Donor coordination in the Kyrgyz Republic remains outstanding, and continued good coordination between U.S. assistance programs and those of other donors is expected.

COUNTRY PERFORMANCE MEASURES

Kyrgyz Democratic Reform

The "radar" or "spider web" graphs below illustrate Kyrgyz Republic's democratic performance during 2004. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 representing the greatest advancement. These charts provide a disaggregated look at each of the indices and are reported to Congress on a regular basis. The gray shaded area represents 2004 performance levels, while the two dark lines indicate how each country compares in its progress vis-�-vis two standards: (1) the average of Romania's and Bulgaria's performance in each indicator as of 2002 (2002 was the year that Romania and Bulgaria - the "threshold countries" - were invited to join NATO and received favorable indications of future EU membership); and, (2) where the country stood in each indicator in 1999. Together, these charts provide a broad picture of where remaining gaps are in a country's performance, and to what extent these gaps are being filled. For more information, including a detailed explanation of each indicator shown in the graph, see USAID/E&E/PO, "Monitoring Country Progress in Central and Eastern Europe & Eurasia," No. 9 (April 2005). Found online at: www.usaid.gov/locations/europe_eurasia/country_progress/.

Graph shows electoral process, 1.7; civil society, 2.7; independent media, 1.7; governance/public admin,1.7; rule of law, 2.0; average of Romania and Bulgaria, 2002; corruption, 1.7.

The graph shows Kyrgyz Republic's democratic reform scores in 2004* (the gray shaded area) as compared to the average of Romania's and Bulgaria's democratic reform scores in 2002 (the bold line) when they were invited to join NATO and received favorable indications of future EU membership. 

*Actual 2005 not yet available.

 

 

Graph shows electoral process, 1.7; civil society, 2.7; 1999; independent media, 1.7; governance/public admin,1.7; rule of law, 2.0; corruption, 1.7.

The graph shows Kyrgyz Republic's democratic reform scores in 2004* (the gray shaded area) as compared to its democratic reform scores in 1999. For example, as compared to 1999, two areas in this sector did not change and four actually worsened.

*Actual 2005 scores not yet available.

Kyrgyz Economic Reform

The "radar" or "spider web" graphs below illustrate Kyrgyz Republic's economic performance during 2004. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 representing the greatest advancement. These charts provide a disaggregated look at each of the indices and are reported to Congress on a regular basis. The gray shaded area represents 2004 performance levels, while the two dark line indicates how each country compares in its progress vis-�-vis two standards: (1) the average of Romania's and Bulgaria's performance in each indicator as of 2002 (2002 was the year that Romania and Bulgaria - the "threshold countries" - were invited to join NATO and received favorable indications of future EU membership); and (2) where the country stood in each indicator in 1999. Together, these charts provide a broad picture of where remaining gaps are in a country's performance, and to what extent these gaps are being filled. For more information, including a detailed explanation of each indicator shown in the graph, see USAID/E&E/PO, "Monitoring Country Progress in Central and Eastern Europe & Eurasia," No. 9 (April 2005). Found online at: www.usaid.gov/locations/europe_eurasia/country progress/.

Graph shows private sector share, 4.5; export share of GDP, 1.0; FDI per capita cumulative, 1.0; GDP as percent 1989 GDP, 2.0; 3 year avg inflation, 4.5; 1999; external debt percent GDP, 1.0.

The graph shows Krygyz Republic's economic reform scores in 2004* (the gray shaded area) as compared to the average of Romania's and Bulgaria's economic reform scores in 2002 (the bold line) when they were invited to join NATO and received favorable indications of future EU membership.

 

*Actual 2005 scores not yet available.

 

 Graph shows private sector share, 4.5; export share of GDP, 1.0; FDI per capita cumulative, 1.0; GDP as percent 1989 GDP, 2.0; 3 year avg inflation, 4.5; 1999; external debt percent GDP, 1.0.

The graph shows Kyrgyz Republic's economic reform scores in 2004* (the gray shaded area) as compared to its economic reform scores in 1999. For example, all areas of this sector improved with the exception of export share of GDP, which remained the same.

*Actual 2005 scores not yet available.

FY 2005 Country Program Performance

Democratic Reform

Flawed parliamentary elections in February and March 2005 provoked an uprising that ousted the Akayev government on March 24, 2005. A loose coalition of opposition figures quickly formed an interim government and decided to recognize the newly-elected parliament. Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the acting interim president, was elected president in July in elections deemed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe as marking significant progress towards meeting international standards. The election was the first constitutional transfer of power in Central Asia. The Bakiyev government launched initial steps to reform the constitution and state media, and to attack widespread corruption, but changes have not been as fast or effective as many have hoped. While not reflecting the March events, Freedom House ratings remained the same in electoral process; national governance; civil society; and constitutional, legislative, and judicial framework. The score for independent media improved slightly.

While very donor-dependent, civil society in the Kyrgyz Republic is far more developed and free than in other Central Asian countries and has become even more confident following the March 2005 events. The environment for Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) generally improved, with less government interference and harassment. NGOs, civic organizations, and media are able, at times, to exert positive influences on government policy and legislation. The new Parliament largely consists of inexperienced legislators who were expected to be loyal to former President Akayev, so it is still unclear what their loyalties or policy interests will be in the post-Akayev era. Local governments are increasingly transparent and responsive, although the process of fiscal decentralization is proceeding slowly due to a lack of high-level political will. Local elections held in 2001 were the first direct local elections in Central Asia and resulted in over 40 percent of the incumbents being ousted. The constitutional referendum held in February 2003 greatly increased presidential control and limited both judicial and parliamentary independence as well as the activities of civil society. President Bakiyev appeared increasingly uninterested in proceeding with reforms of the constitution to reduce presidential powers, but the process of drafting amendments is continuing.

The USG faces the challenge of identifying and securing new opportunities to work with the Kyrgyz Government on reform and of maintaining the direction of democratic reforms, at the national and local level. The flawed constitutional referendum in 2003 was a setback for democratic institutions; however, a process of constitutional reform has been restarted under President Bakiyev. Independent media still struggle to achieve sustainability, but the level of freedom of speech has increased, resulting in less official censorship and self-censorship. New opportunities exist to combat corruption, which persists and threatens to impede meaningful reform in numerous areas. High turnover in government positions, especially at the local level, could disrupt the momentum of reforms. Consolidating gains in freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, and increased political space for NGOs, political parties, and parliament will require sustained USG support.

U.S. ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES

Democracy and media programs in FY 2005 supported civil society development, civic advocacy, political party development, parliamentary transparency, independent media, local government reform, and prevention and protection activities to combat trafficking in persons. USG programs worked to expand the political space for political parties and NGOs, to increase sustainability of independent media outlets and encourage reporting that sought changes on political and social issues, and to assist professional associations and NGOs to develop more sophisticated, effective national advocacy campaigns. For the first time, local NGOs worked together on a coordinated campaign for free elections that encompassed voter education and monitoring activities. The legal education and civic education programs targeted the next generation of citizens and lawyers to encourage interactive learning and a focus on ethical behavior. The human rights program helped local activists become more professional at monitoring and reporting on human rights abuses and conducting advocacy on human rights issues.

The new authorities, as well as civil society and independent media, will need continued USG support to consolidate democratic gains. USG assistance can play an important role in constitutional reform to support a transparent and inclusive discussion process. USG assistance should be budgeted towards ongoing development of political parties, assisting NGOs to monitor government performance and to conduct advocacy campaigns, and promoting the reform of the state TV/radio network. The USG will continue working in civic education, local governance, legal reform, anti-trafficking in persons, and human rights. In addition, the USG will launch new initiatives to support further economic reform, reform of law enforcement structures and judicial reform, as well as expanded parliamentary assistance. The new USG-funded conflict mitigation program will work with local communities to promote more accountable local government, youth employment, and community radio.

The selection of the Kyrgyz Republic as a Millennium Challenge Account threshold country also raises the opportunity to engage more directly with the Government on corruption issues, the principal area of reform required before the Kyrgyz Republic can be considered for compact status.

PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

The efforts of the USG to promote democracy have made significant achievements in certain areas. USG-funded NGOs participated actively in conducting voter education and monitoring of parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. The USG supported the first-ever use of inking to mark voters, an effort that was effective in curbing multiple voting. The USG funded parliamentary assistance program and worked with parliamentarians and their staffs to introduce principles of transparency. Efforts to promote legislative transparency and public input also support the reform process in all other sectors in which USG assistance is active. The USG local governance assistance program collaborates closely with the USG fiscal reform assistance program to implement decentralization reforms. These reforms continued to move towards the implementation of the law passed in 2004 on fiscal decentralization. A USG-funded civic education textbook, which empowers students with knowledge of their rights, began to be used in all secondary schools nationwide. An assessment of security sector reform was conducted to determine the direction of a new program in this area. USG assistance supported the process of reform of state media, including the drafting of a new law on broadcasting, and to encourage a transformation to public service broadcasting. The USG provided support for discussions on constitutional reform and facilitated commentary by constitutional experts. NGOs conducted advocacy campaigns on issues such as labor migration and alcohol and tobacco advertising.

While the Kyrgyz Republic does not appear to be sliding into open conflict, and conflict has not impeded program implementation, local-level conflicts erupted during the parliamentary election period and culminated in massive protests and some violence in Osh, Jalalabad, and Bishkek. The Andijon events in April pushed large numbers of Uzbek refugees into the Kyrgyz Republic, where their presence aggravated tensions in local communities. The border closure with Uzbekistan, and extremist elements that prey on the unemployed, are also sources of conflict. By the close of FY 2005, USG assistance was implementing conflict mitigation activities in 66 communities, primarily Ferghana Valley border communities, which have identified sources of local tension. Infrastructure and social projects directly benefited more than 534,000 people. The results included refurbished schools, health clinics, and new roads. Social projects helped to bring citizens of different ethnic groups together within communities and across borders. At the end of the fiscal year, the USG began a new generation of conflict programming to focus on job creation, youth leadership, and access to information in at-risk communities.

MEASURES OF PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS

In order to determine how U.S. Government assistance affects a country, U.S. embassies set targets for improvement called "performance indicators." Data for these indicators are collected by research institutes, embassies and international organizations. By examining data over time, U.S. policymakers better understand whether specific assistance programs are making their intended impact and, if necessary, how to adjust these programs to improve the impact.

Please find below two important indicators in the area of Democratic Reform. In the charts, the "Baseline" refers to a starting point from which to measure progress or regression over time. The embassy and its partner organizations then agree on a "Target" figure that they hope to achieve as a result of U.S. assistance programs. The "Rank" figure is the resulting measurement. "CY" stands for "calendar year," or January 1 to December 31, while "FY" stands for "fiscal year," the period of the U.S. budget that runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year.

Performance Indicator: Independent Media Rating. The Freedom House rating addresses the current state of press freedom, including libel laws, harassment of journalists, editorial independence, the emergence of a financially viable private press, and Internet access for private citizens. Measurement is on a 7-point scale, with 1 being the best, 7 being the worst. Source: Freedom House Nations in Transit 2005. The 2005 rank is based on 2004 data. Found online: www.freedomhouse.org/research/nattransit.htm

CY 2002 Baseline

CY 2004 Rank

CY 2005 Target

CY 2005 Rank

5.75

6.00

5.50

5.75

The Kyrgyz Republic's 2005 ranking improved slightly due to gradual movement towards freedom of the press. To strengthen independent media, the USG provided training for more than 12 television stations, 10 radio stations and 20 newspaper outlets to improve production quality and clarify the legal framework for media operation. The USG funded Media Commissioner Institute provided a source for alternative dispute settlement for journalists. In addition, the USG supported a regular talk show on political issues that was shown throughout the year on state and non-state media.

Performance Indicator: NGO Sustainability Index. Seven different dimensions of the NGO sector are analyzed each year in the NGO Sustainability Index: legal environment, organizational capacity, financial viability, advocacy, service provision, NGO infrastructure and public image. The NGO Sustainability Index uses a seven-point scale, to facilitate comparisons to the Freedom House indices, with 7 indicating a low or poor level of development and 1 indicating a very advanced NGO sector. The 2005 rank is based on 2004 data. Found online: www.usaid.gov/locations/europe_eurasia/dem_gov/ngoindex/2004/.

FY 2002 Baseline

FY 2004 Rank

FY 2005 Target

FY 2005 Rank

4.0

4.1

3.9

4.2

In addition to national-level advocacy campaigns on democracy-related issues, NGOs led campaigns in other areas that showed their increasing capacity to articulate citizens' interests. These included successful campaigns to change advertising for alcohol and tobacco products, to provide reliable telephone service in a remote area, and to address disaster planning needs in a community threatened by periodic landslides and flooding. To further consolidate NGO development, 38 organizations received capacity building grants, and 82 organizations received community action grants to work on issues of local importance. There were a number of results from this assistance, including: 11 organizations improved functioning of their internal governing body for more effective decision-making, strategic planning, public outreach, fundraising and accountability; 20 organizations achieved financial sustainability and have diversified their funding sources to include membership fees, government contracts and other external funding; seven NGOs demonstrated improved skills in advocacy, community organizing, government relations and public outreach/education; 21 NGOs introduced an ongoing process of strategic planning; 19 organizations developed a membership strategy and have an open membership of at least ten people; 20 leading NGOs developed and used public outreach strategies; and 10 NGOs established or developed existing local civil society networks. By the end of the year, a local NGO association took over direct management of all technical assistance and training for their members and affiliated NGOs from a U.S. organization. Despite these promising results, performance on the NGO Sustainability Index declined slightly over the past year.

Economic Reform

The Kyrgyz Republic was the first Central Asian Republic to undertake meaningful economic and social reforms. It inherited one of the least competitive economies of the former Soviet Union, with relatively few natural resources other than water. While it has good agricultural, tourism, mining, and hydropower potential, it is handicapped by protectionist measures and corruption, both internal and in neighboring countries, which limits exports. Limited access to trade routes, deteriorating infrastructure, a heavy burden of external debt ($1.9 billion), a weak, although improving, banking sector, and internal corruption at all levels, threaten economic and political reform and limit growth.

Economic indicators have been flat for 2005, owing to the disruption and loss of investor confidence following the March change of government. The Government approved several new, market-oriented laws developed with USG assistance, including the Pledge Law, which facilitates credit by simplifying foreclosure, and the Law on Technical Regulations, which further deregulates the economy in compliance with World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments. Although the March 2005 'revolution' brings hope for a more responsive government, it significantly destabilized state administration and staggered confidence in business circles. Even though the Kyrgyz Republic managed to avoid a financial crisis, the political instability and uncertainty in economic policy seriously affected production during 2005 (9.1 percent decline in industrial production and 4.1 percent decline in agricultural production during January to September 2005), increased unemployment, and stalled GDP growth (-0.4 percent for the first nine months of 2005). The current situation is also marked by an overall deterioration in the business environment.

Similarly, in the energy sector, the Kyrgyz Government has consistently lacked the commitment to make the reforms necessary to put the electricity sector on a more solid financial footing. This constitutes a major barrier to internal economic development and foreign investment. The Kyrgyz distribution system experiences losses of up to 40 percent, an extremely high figure which can be attributed to old infrastructure, theft, and corruption. As with other sectors, the new Government has yet to determine its policy in the energy area. The Kyrgyz Republic is home to many of the regions major dams and hydropower facilities and there is a strong interest by both Kazakhstan and Russia to develop hydropower to cover shortages.

Agriculture is vital to the Kyrgyz Republic, as it represents 40 percent of GDP and 50 percent of employment. Since the Kyrgyz Republic is a semi-arid country, agricultural production is almost totally reliant on water deliveries from irrigation systems. These systems are in a serious state of disrepair and there is a critical need for the development of local, democratic institutions to take over their operation and maintenance.

On the positive side, the Government does appear to be open to economic reform and is looking for a way to deliver on its promises of increased growth and reduced corruption. The new Government identified as its main goal a comprehensive and consistent fight against poverty. In addition, the selection of the Kyrgyz Republic as a Millennium Challenge Account threshold country also raises the opportunity to engage more directly with the Government on corruption issues, the principal area of reform required before it can be considered for compact status.

U.S. ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES

In FY 2005, USG economic development programs focused on accelerating economic growth by providing high-level macro-economic technical assistance and contributing to an improved environment for the growth of small and medium enterprises. Assistance priorities also included assistance to: strengthen the management and financial accounting capacities of SMEs; streamline the legal and regulatory environment affecting business; develop a system of commercial and land legislation in support of private enterprise and market development; improve budget and tax policies and practices; improve banking supervision; expand access to microfinance; improve business education; and develop agriculture and agribusiness through improved access to input supplies and agro-processors. Given the new environment in the Kyrgyz Republic, the USG is assessing a number of new opportunities to strengthen the capacity of several key government agencies and the private sector and to build a truly functioning public-private dialogue. Additional priorities include development of a more sustainable energy sector and improvement of local capacity to manage critical water resources. In the future, the USG will move its focus in this sector to the development of a regional energy market.

PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

Firm-level consulting services to Kyrgyz businesses in the areas of Strategic Planning, Marketing, Finance, and Operations Quality Improvement were provided to 162 clients in FY 2005; 75 of them were women-owned businesses. These businesses realized an annualized increase in client sales of 51 percent. As a direct result of USG assistance, 48 investment constraints were reduced and four WTO post-accession constraints were removed, hitting the 50 constraints target for this year. Among other indirect benefits, the elimination of discretionary steps in state agency procedures, increase in the transparency of government revenues and processes, simplification of procedures, increased predictability of requirements, elimination of illegal checkpoints, lifting of unnecessary prohibitions and requirements, and curtailing unauthorized inspections, will free 26,313 work days and save over $4 million dollars annually.

Significant progress was made in increasing access to capital. This year, the focus of the USG-supported European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Micro and Small Enterprise Finance Program has been on regional expansion in order to offer finance in remote rural and economically-depressed regions. The program expanded to five new towns with 21 new outlets. The outstanding portfolio grew by 141 percent to $22,700,000, of which female borrowers comprise 48 percent. The number of outstanding loans grew over two times, from 6,667 to 14,092, and extend assistance (55 percent) to women. Within one year of operation, Frontiers, a wholesale regional microfinance lending facility based in the Kyrgyz Republic, generated a portfolio of $1,962,184, with 45 percent of it being lent to Kyrgyz microfinance institutions. Frontiers' loans help microfinance institutions and credit unions to grow and expand regionally. USG support to the Bai Tushum Financial Fund was just completed. The Fund's current portfolio exceeds $5,760,000, which represents 3,014 active clients, of whom 36 percent are women. Bai Tushum already has a history of three commercial loans, which is a testimony to the Fund's strong capacity and high prospects for further growth.

Success was obtained through the introduction of new tools to strengthen water management. These tools allow the Kyrgyz Republic to predict with greater accuracy its internal water needs and the needs of downstream countries, allowing water reserves to be used for agriculture and electricity generation. The construction of a small hydro plant was also completed, increasing the electricity available to schools, medical facilities, and residents, and is expected to generate about 60 new places of employment in the community. Energy policy, however, proved to be a difficult area for success, primarily because of a lack of Government will and commitment to make reforms. The USG is currently considering a redesign of its policy assistance that would use a regional market to provide the Government with the desire to move forward.

Finally, a new project called Ag Fin+ has achieved success in improving farm productivity. The project
helped farmers to connect to specific markets, improve their productive capacity, and overcome constraints in doing business. This project worked with over 1,000 Kyrgyz small farmers to develop their productive capacity. Farmers who participated in the project improved their incomes by more than 50 percent.

MEASURES OF PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS

In order to determine how U.S. Government assistance affects a country, U.S. embassies set targets for improvement called "performance indicators." Data for these indicators are collected by research institutes, embassies and international organizations. By examining data over time, U.S. policymakers better understand whether specific assistance programs are making their intended impact and, if necessary, how to adjust these programs to improve the impact.

Please find below an important indicator in the area of Economic Reform. In the chart, the "Baseline" refers to a starting point from which to measure progress or regression over time. The embassy and its partner organizations then agree on a "Target" figure that they hope to achieve as a result of U.S. assistance programs. The "Rank" figure is the resulting measurement. "CY" stands for "calendar year," or January 1 to December 31, while "FY" stands for "fiscal year," the period of the U.S. budget that runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year.

Performance Indicators: Economic Reform Index. (1 equals lowest, 5 equals highest) Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Annual Transition Report. The 2005 rank is based on 2004 data. Found online: www.usaid.gov/locations/europe_eurasia/country_progress/index.html.

CY 2002 Baseline

CY 2004 Rank

CY 2005 Target

CY 2005 Rank

2.96

3.08

3.25

3.08



The CY 2005 rank on this indicator did not improve from the CY 2004 rank. This lack of indicator improvement is disappointing but understandable since the data were collected in 2004. During FY 2005, the USG assisted the Ministry of Finance to improve the budget preparation process following the disruption caused by the riots in March 2005. Work was finalized on providing the Kyrgyz Government with an operational formula and database for computing equalization grants to be paid from the central government to local governments. The Draft of the New Tax Code was finalized and is being considered by a public-private Commission set up by President Bakiyev. The development of the draft was based on widespread acceptance among members of Parliament, Government, the business sector, and international experts that there is a critical need to address the deficiencies in the existing tax code to better support business and revenue administration in the Kyrgyz Republic. The draft Tax Code addresses problems and inadequacies in the existing tax legislation to enable a more sophisticated tax administration necessary for economic and business development, and provides a comprehensive document based on international experience and the experience of other countries in the region. USG supported the work of tax specialists and private sector tax experts in the drafting process.

Social Reform and Humanitarian Assistance

Despite successes in the health sector, anecdotal evidence indicates that the overall health situation is poor and is in need of dramatic improvement. However, reliable statistics are either not available or outdated and a full-scale demographic health survey has not been conducted since 1997. Tuberculosis (TB) is a growing problem in the penitentiary system and HIV/AIDS is a growing problem among high risk groups. In addition, government budget allocations for the health sector need to increase significantly and the Government has not reinvested savings generated through reforms into the health sector.

With the demise of the Soviet Union, the Kyrgyz Republic suffered a substantial deterioration of the once strong education sector. Schools lack resources to maintain their buildings and pay staff salaries. Extremely low salaries of teachers provide a disincentive for the younger generation to pursue careers in education, as well as for qualified teachers to remain in the profession, resulting in a lack of teachers, particularly in rural areas. A high percentage of teachers will retire in the next few years; finding replacements will be a major problem. The new government is supportive of all education programs implemented by donor agencies, including the USAID Basic Education Program, which improves access to quality education, and the USAID National Scholarship Test Initiative Program, which combats university level corruption in the admission process.

U.S. ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES

USG-funded health programs in FY 2005 supported primary health care (PHC) reforms and prevention and control of infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria. In 2005, the USG began the new five-year assistance program, ZdravPlus II, alternatively known as the Primary Health Care Reform Project (2005-2010). The project will assist the Ministry of Health (MOH) to institutionalize past improvements and create a sustainable system to ensure the continued provision of quality, efficient health care. The USG's assistance programs helped the MOH develop the next national health reform strategy, known as the Manas Taalimi Program for 2006-2010. The program will be implemented using a sector-wide approach that pools donor resources with those of the Government. The USG will provide parallel technical assistance in support of Manas Taalimi. In the infectious disease area, the Central Asia Program for AIDS Control and Interventions Targeting Youth and Other High-Risk Groups (CAPACITY) was initiated to build technical capacity as a complement to the national HIV/AIDS program. CAPACITY will implement a $3.4 million grant from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria (GFATM) to combat malaria. In addition, CAPACITY will promote transparency and efficiency in strategic planning, financial management, the procurement process, monitoring and evaluation, and coordination of the GFATM grant and other donor funding resources.

PROGRAM PERFORMANCE

Achievements in primary health care reform (PHC) have contributed to increased efficiency and improved quality of care. Access to PHC service improved through the State Guaranteed Benefit Package, which provides free services to the entire population. Evaluation of visits to outpatient care by different socio-economic groups of the population shows improved equality in the utilization of health care services. The World Bank, KfW, and the British Department for International Development have agreed to provide their support from 2006-2010 for a nationally-led Sector Wide Approach, through which donor funds will be pooled to complement USG technical assistance and Government resources for the health sector. This is the first such model in Central Asia. Restructuring efforts achieved significant improvements in the efficiency of health care delivery. The share of health care expenditures devoted to PHC also improved dramatically, doubling from 15 percent to 33 percent between 2001 and 2005. USG-funded technical assistance has helped the MOH to develop its second health reform strategy, and to receive a $3.4 million grant from the GFATM for malaria control. The application to the GFATM was developed with assistance from the World Health Organization under the USG-funded Roll Back Malaria Program.

The USG Basic Education Program focuses on improving access to quality primary and secondary education in the Kyrgyz Republic. The program trains teachers in student-centered methods and supports the creation of low-cost learning materials, school community mobilization, education finance policy reforms, capacity building for education administrators, and limited infrastructure improvement. Despite efforts to increase public spending for education, funding for schools is lacking and inefficiently distributed. The USG has assisted the Ministries of Education and Finance to introduce a new financing mechanism based on a per capita formula, which is expected to bring equity in resource allocations in future budgets. Pilot teacher training programs based on interactive teaching methodologies are being developed and are slated for country-wide roll-out. The National Scholarship Testing Initiative, supported by the USG, allowed for transparent and fair distribution of state grants for undergraduate study. Since its introduction in 2003, more than 70,000 applicants took the test to compete for government-provided scholarships at colleges and universities. In 2005, the test began to be used by universities, not just for scholarship students but also for general admission purposes, and the Center for Educational Assessment and Teaching Methods, a local NGO, was established to take over administration of future tests.

MEASURES OF PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS

In order to determine how U.S. Government assistance affects a country, U.S. embassies set targets for improvement called "performance indicators." Data for these indicators are collected by research institutes, embassies and international organizations. By examining data over time, U.S. policymakers better understand whether specific assistance programs are making their intended impact and, if necessary, how to adjust these programs to improve the impact.

Please find below two important indicators in the area of Social Reform and Humanitarian Assistance. In the charts, the "Baseline" refers to a starting point from which to measure progress or regression over time. The embassy and its partner organizations then agree on a "Target" figure that they hope to achieve as a result of U.S. assistance programs. The "Number" or "Percentage" figure is the resulting measurement. "CY" stands for "calendar year," or January 1 to December 31, while "FY" stands for "fiscal year," the period of the U.S. budget that runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year.

Performance Indicator: Tuberculosis Incidence per 100,000. Number of newly diagnosed tuberculosis cases, all forms during the given calendar year. Source: World Health Organization, European Health For All Database. Found online: www.data.euro.who.int/hfadb/.

CY 2000 Baseline

CY 2002 Number

CY 2003 Number

126.94

133.18

130.94


The USG provides critical technical assistance to control the Kyrgyz Republic's TB epidemic. The Kyrgyz Republic achieved significant improvement in its program for Directly Observed Treatment Short-course (DOTS). During 2005, no interruption in the TB drug supply occurred, a significant improvement from past years, when such interruptions posed major problems. WHO data on TB incidence for 2004 is not yet available, but the National TB program (NTP) reports TB incidence for 2004 to be 114.9 per 100,000. We expect to be on target with the WHO measure. The NTP data has historically differed from WHO data, but has demonstrated the same trends of decreasing mortality rates and stabilizing incidence rates

In 2005, USG assistance supported the creation of a Coordinating Council on TB that consists of the MOH, Ministry of Justice, National TB Program, Medical Academy, Institute for Postgraduate Medical Education, and all international organizations working on TB control. USG assistance also supported the creation of seven high level working groups and thematic working groups in the Kyrgyz Republic to address each component of the WHO-recommended strategy for TB. The Coordinating Council and thematic working groups allow better collaboration between all stakeholders through joint work plans. During FY 2005, USG provided intensive support in the effort to integrate vertical TB services with the primary healthcare system in Bishkek. Ultimately, an integrated system will be more cost-effective and better able to identify and treat cases. Since September 2004, The USG supported 13 seminars on this topic for 232 primary health care workers. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded the TB National Coordinator's participation in a regional training on TB bacteriology at the WHO Collaborating Center in Riga, Latvia. As a result of regular intensive training, TB detection in primary health care facilities increased from 1.2 percent in 1999 to 7.3 percent in 2004 moving the primary health care detection rate closer to the WHO standard of 10 percent.

Performance Indicator: Percentage Of Population Living Under the Poverty Line. Source: World Bank Poverty Indicators.

CY 2003 Baseline

CY 2004 Percentage

50 percent

49 percent

Growth and increased social spending have helped the Kyrgyz Republic reduce poverty. USG assistance in the budget and tax areas has helped to improve the fiscal performance of the Kyrgyz Republic, and devote a greater percentage of its budget to healthcare. The USG-funded programs in microfinance, enterprise improvement and agriculture have an impact on this indicator. Although growth is expected to be flat for 2005, the World Bank reports that the percentage of those living under the poverty level continued to slowly decrease in 2005.

Security, Regional Stability and Law Enforcement

In FY 2005, the USG continued to provide security assistance and conducted cooperative activities with the Kyrgyz Government, most visibly through the continued presence of U.S. Air Force personnel and aircraft at the Manas Airbase. The USG also continued to provide security assistance to the Kyrgyz Government via Foreign Military Financing (FMF), International Military Equipment and Training (IMET), Export Control and Related Border Security (EXBS), and the Anti-terrorist Assistance (ATA) programs, as well as the U.S. Department of State's International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) program. These programs focus their assistance on the Ministry of Defense, Border Troops, Ministry of Emergency Situations, National Guard, and Ministry of Interior Forces. Following the March revolution, these ministries experienced leadership changes that resulted in some disruption of assistance programs. Though the projects mentioned continue with the country's new leadership, it still remains to be seen how committed the Kyrgyz administration is to reform.

The USG, through the EXBS program worked with the Kyrgyz Government to address many border security and export control concerns. The $2 million EXBS program provided equipment and trained Customs Officials and Border Guards to detect, interdict, and seize WMD and component and dual-use items. EXBS has equipped small numbers of Kyrgyz border units to operate at high elevations in all weather conditions. The routes that are now being guarded will control any trafficking of WMD components. EXBS also constructed and equipped ports for inspection of commercial vehicles at several key border crossing. In addition, the USG funds civilian research by former weapons scientists in order to prevent the proliferation of WMD expertise.

FMF and IMET programs contributed to interoperability. FMF continued to improve Kyrgyz counter-terrorism capabilities and helped modernize and democratize the Kyrgyz Armed Forces. Assistance supported training and equipping of Special Forces and NCO Corps modernization. IMET focused on English language training. The communication department heads from all five ministries came together and, under an IMET funded program, developed a nation-wide communication system that will allow direct radio communications between all ministries. Regional assistance programs via IMET Regional Cooperation and Disaster Preparedness Workshops have both made great strides in developing regional responses to manmade and natural disasters. These two programs alone have shown the understanding by the Kyrgyz and their neighbor countries of the need to share information and resources. IMET ($1.2 million) and FMF ($1.94 million) this year train 20 officers in different areas of the defense forces. FMF has provided much needed US equipment such as uniforms and personal gear as well as radios, computers, and language labs to improve Kyrgyz systems.

In FY 2005, the U.S. Department of State's Diplomatic Security Service held several courses in conjunction with the Anti-Terrorist Assistance (ATA) program, including the ILEA Budapest course on the "Role of Police in Combating Terrorism," where Kyrgyz took part alongside Uzbek, Tajik, and Kazakh counterparts. Other courses included "Antiterrorism Instructor Training," "Surveillance Detection," and "Consultation-Protective Operations Management," a regional event with participation of Uzbek, Tajik, and Kazakh counterparts. WMD training involved the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Ecology and Emergency Management

The USG continues to support the Kyrgyz Drug Control Agency (DCA). The construction of a Model Customs Post in a village on the Tajik border was finished in September 2005, leaving only the training element for the project to be completed. This final phase of training should be completed in early 2006. The development of a master plan for counter narcotics activity in the Kyrgyz Republic is taking the form of a multi-agency drug task force. With the DCA as the lead, officers from the National Security Service, National Customs, National Border Police and Ministry of Interior Police Service will be assigned full time to the task force. Each officer will be vetted, and be under the rule of DCA policies.

In FY 2005, the USG supported the Kyrgyz Government's efforts to combat human trafficking. The USG continued supporting the Kyrgyz Government to retain and improve its Tier II status. A USG-funded anti-trafficking program is increasing the ability of individuals and institutions to combat human trafficking. Local organizations received grants to implement public outreach and education activities on prevention of human trafficking, and provision of protection services such as hotlines and shelters to trafficking victims.

MEASURES OF PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS

In order to determine how U.S. Government assistance affects a country, U.S. embassies set targets for improvement called "performance indicators." Data for these indicators are collected by research institutes, embassies and international organizations. By examining data over time, U.S. policymakers better understand whether specific assistance programs are making their intended impact and, if necessary, how to adjust these programs to improve the impact.

Please find below an important indicator in the area of Security, Regional Stability and Law Enforcement. In the chart, the "Baseline" refers to a starting point from which to measure progress or regression over time. The embassy and its partner organizations then agree on a "Target" figure that they hope to achieve as a result of U.S. assistance programs. The "Rank" figure is the resulting measurement. "CY" stands for "calendar year," or January 1 to December 31, while "FY" stands for "fiscal year," the period of the U.S. budget that runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year.

Performance Indicator: State Department Global Trafficking in Persons Report Country Rankings. Tier 1 countries are those whose governments fully comply with the minimum standards of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000. Tier 2 countries are those whose governments do not fully comply with the Act's minimum standards but are making significant efforts to bring themselves into compliance. Tier 3 countries are those countries whose governments do not fully comply with the minimum standards and are not making significant efforts to do so. Source: U.S. State Department Global Trafficking in Persons Annual Report. The 2005 rank is based on 2004 data. Found online: www.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/.

CY 2002 Baseline

CY 2004 Rank

CY 2005 Target

CY 2005 Rank

3

2

3

2

Since September 2003, the USG has fought trafficking through a project implemented by Winrock International. The goal of the project is to help prevent trafficking by strengthening local NGO capacity to conduct public outreach and provide training on legitimate alternatives to work abroad and to help protect victims of trafficking through development of appropriate victim assistance services.

Click for FY 2005 Funds Budgeted for U.S. Government Assistance to Kyrgyz Republic [PDF format]



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